A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
